AGI · NYSE · STOCK
Alamos Gold (AGI) Stock Analysis
$32.91
52W $27.05 – $55.41
65/100
$13.82B
11.9
1.39
Is AGI Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) Buy with a composite score of 65/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +9.85 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -10.15 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 47.8% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 11.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 26.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 47.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 238.1% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.05) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
65/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 6%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 11.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 47.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bearish
39
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.05) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 17.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 10 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.3 to 65.2.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 67% to 83%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->62 (+4); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
48.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.172
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$29.28
Resistance
$37.53
Bollinger %B
0.36
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$32.69
Above
EMA 21
$33.52
Below
EMA 50
$34.03
Below
EMA 200
$35.67
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
93
Growth
51
Profitability
100
Financial Health
91
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.9×
P/B Ratio
2.88×
PEG Ratio
0.05
Dividend Yield
0.44%
52W High
$55.41
52W Low
$27.05
Quality & Growth
ROE
2004.2%
ROA
1395.6%
Gross Margin
6012.9%
Operating Margin
5654.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.04
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 11.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.9x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 20.0%; Return on assets of 14.0%; Net margin of 52.8%; Gross margin of 60.1%; Current ratio of 1.78 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.05; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.75); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.7%; EPS growth accelerating (+1.9% -> +7.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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