CMC · NYSE · STOCK
Commercial Metals (CMC) Stock Analysis
$72.75
52W $53.08 – $84.87
65/100
$7.92B
13.4
1.53
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is CMC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Commercial Metals (CMC) Buy with a composite score of 65/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated August 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +9.86 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -10.14 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- EPS growing 1594.8% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
65/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 22%
of 95 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 1594.8% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 65.1 to 65.1.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.133
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$59.96
Resistance
$79.66
Bollinger %B
0.60
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$72.10
Above
EMA 21
$70.80
Above
EMA 50
$69.90
Above
EMA 200
$67.40
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
74
Profitability
14
Financial Health
94
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.4×
P/B Ratio
1.75×
PEG Ratio
0.01
Dividend Yield
1.06%
52W High
$84.87
52W Low
$53.08
Quality & Growth
ROE
201.9%
ROA
118.1%
Gross Margin
1856.5%
Operating Margin
918.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.75
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 13.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.8x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 2.0%; Return on assets of 1.2%; Net margin of 6.7%; Gross margin of 18.6%; Current ratio of 2.33 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.75; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.65); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.2%; EPS growth accelerating (-37.0% -> +49.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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