CMC · NYSE · STOCK
Commercial Metals (CMC) Stock Analysis
$70.30
52W $53.08 – $84.87
65/100
$7.61B
12.9
1.53
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is CMC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Commercial Metals (CMC) Buy with a composite score of 65/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 05, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +9.72 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -10.28 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is eps growing 1594.8% yoy. The main limiting factor is macd histogram negative -- bearish momentum. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.8 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- EPS growing 1594.8% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 6 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 05, 2026
Overall Committee Score
65/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 4%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 12.8 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 1594.8% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.6% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
74
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 6 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3059.07)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 65.3 to 65.3.
Comparing 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-05 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.074
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$59.96
Resistance
$76.76
Bollinger %B
0.43
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$68.23
Above
EMA 21
$68.71
Above
EMA 50
$69.08
Above
EMA 200
$67.48
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
74
Profitability
14
Financial Health
94
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.9×
P/B Ratio
1.68×
PEG Ratio
0.01
Dividend Yield
1.11%
52W High
$84.87
52W Low
$53.08
Quality & Growth
ROE
201.9%
ROA
118.1%
Gross Margin
1856.5%
Operating Margin
918.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.75
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.7x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 2.0%; Return on assets of 1.2%; Net margin of 6.7%; Gross margin of 18.6%; Current ratio of 2.33 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.75; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.65); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.2%; EPS growth accelerating (-37.0% -> +49.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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