ALM · NASDAQ · STOCK
Almonty Industries (ALM) Stock Analysis
$11.88
52W $5.43 – $24.41
55/100
$3.37B
84.6
2.05
Is ALM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Almonty Industries Inc. (ALM) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.43 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.57 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 29.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 204.6% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- P/E of 44.9 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 25.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 66%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 29.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 44.9 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 204.6% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 25.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.3 to 54.6.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->48 (+10).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
30.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.133
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$10.74
Resistance
$19.45
Bollinger %B
0.07
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$12.65
Below
EMA 21
$13.58
Below
EMA 50
$14.63
Below
EMA 200
$14.45
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
49
Profitability
42
Financial Health
76
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
84.6×
P/B Ratio
12.78×
PEG Ratio
-0.14
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$24.41
52W Low
$5.43
Quality & Growth
ROE
-4525.1%
ROA
-2745.5%
Gross Margin
4676.7%
Operating Margin
-14.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.47
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 84.6 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 12.8x; PEG ratio of -0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -45.3%; Return on assets of -27.5%; Net margin of 73.3%; Gross margin of 46.8%; Current ratio of 9.58 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.47; Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.19); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 300.0%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-223.1% -> +83.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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