AON · NYSE · STOCK
Aon (AON) Stock Analysis
$273.49
52W $266.33 – $382.34
52/100
$58.01B
15.0
0.69
Is AON Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Aon plc (AON) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.50 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.50 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.9 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 42.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 51.8% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 8.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.63 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 20 -- oversold on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.63) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 89%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ P/E of 14.9 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 8.1x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 51.8% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.63) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.1 to 52.5.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
39.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.657
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$268.64
Resistance
$296.30
Bollinger %B
0.31
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$275.38
Below
EMA 21
$286.05
Below
EMA 50
$307.49
Below
EMA 200
$329.77
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
77
Growth
37
Profitability
93
Financial Health
31
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.0×
P/B Ratio
6.05×
PEG Ratio
0.29
Dividend Yield
1.14%
52W High
$382.34
52W Low
$266.33
Quality & Growth
ROE
3951.0%
ROA
727.6%
Gross Margin
8312.0%
Operating Margin
2721.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.64
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 15.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.1x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 39.5%; Return on assets of 7.3%; Net margin of 22.3%; Gross margin of 83.1%; Current ratio of 1.03 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.64; Free cash flow per share is positive (15.19); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.8%; EPS growth decelerating (+33.6% -> -41.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 9.2%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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