AWI · NYSE · STOCK
Armstrong World Industries (AWI) Stock Analysis
$162.15
52W $150.28 – $206.08
60/100
$6.84B
22.1
1.16
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is AWI Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.21 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.79 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 35.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 9.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 30%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 35.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 9.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.8 to 59.8.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
42.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.399
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$159.04
Resistance
$162.69
Bollinger %B
0.47
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$163.05
Below
EMA 21
$164.15
Below
EMA 50
$166.27
Below
EMA 200
$169.62
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
26
Growth
70
Profitability
86
Financial Health
76
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.1×
P/B Ratio
7.78×
PEG Ratio
2.95
Dividend Yield
0.84%
52W High
$206.08
52W Low
$150.28
Quality & Growth
ROE
3427.3%
ROA
1603.9%
Gross Margin
4030.3%
Operating Margin
2923.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.66
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.8x; PEG ratio of 3.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 34.3%; Return on assets of 16.0%; Net margin of 18.6%; Gross margin of 40.3%; Current ratio of 1.52 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.66; Free cash flow per share is positive (6.01); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.9%; EPS growth accelerating (+5.0% -> +39.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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