AWI · NYSE · STOCK
Armstrong World Industries, Inc.
$186.65
52W $150.28 – $206.08
54/100
$7.89B
25.5
1.17
Is AWI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.17 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.83 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 30.1% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 35.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 9.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- RSI at 73 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 77 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 30.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 85%
of 223 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 35.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 9.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 73 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 30.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
73.2
Overbought
MACD Histogram
1.603
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$177.99
Resistance
$203.18
Bollinger %B
0.81
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$181.38
Above
EMA 21
$173.59
Above
EMA 50
$167.02
Above
EMA 200
$170.40
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
19
Profitability
86
Financial Health
76
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
25.5×
P/B Ratio
8.97×
PEG Ratio
3.41
Dividend Yield
0.73%
52W High
$206.08
52W Low
$150.28
Quality & Growth
ROE
3427.3%
ROA
1603.9%
Gross Margin
4030.3%
Operating Margin
2923.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.66
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 25.5 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.0x; PEG ratio of 3.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 34.3%; Return on assets of 16.0%; Net margin of 18.6%; Gross margin of 40.3%; Current ratio of 1.52 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.66; Free cash flow per share is positive (6.01); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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