BHF · NASDAQ · STOCK
Brighthouse Financial (BHF) Stock Analysis
$51.88
52W $44.51 – $66.80
67/100
$2.86B
3.9
0.84
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is BHF Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Brighthouse Financial (BHF) Buy with a composite score of 67/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +7.91 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -12.09 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. The main limiting factor is 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 3.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 0.5x is a discount to asset value — Value
- EPS growing 32.5% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.67 across 3 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 16 -- oversold on the larger timeframe too — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
67/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 26%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 3.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 32.5% YoY
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.67 across 3 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 66.4 to 67.1.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: score 90->79 (-11); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
34.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.106
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$49.30
Resistance
$49.88
Bollinger %B
0.24
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$50.20
Above
EMA 21
$52.00
Below
EMA 50
$55.59
Below
EMA 200
$59.00
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
47
Profitability
48
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
3.9×
P/B Ratio
0.44×
PEG Ratio
-0.01
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$66.80
52W Low
$44.51
Quality & Growth
ROE
639.8%
ROA
17.9%
Gross Margin
5606.3%
Operating Margin
1551.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.48
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 3.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.4x; PEG ratio of -0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.4%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 13.2%; Gross margin of 56.1%; Current ratio of 8792.80 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.48; Free cash flow per share is negative (-15.57); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 9.3%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+17.6% -> +2.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 29.7%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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