BHP · NYSE · STOCK
BHP Group (BHP) Stock Analysis
$86.73
52W $52.18 – $98.71
64/100
$220.35B
21.9
0.85
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is BHP Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates BHP Group Limited (BHP) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.81 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.19 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — quarter-over-quarter growth rate is accelerating, not just positive. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 19.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.6% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 8%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 19.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 4.1x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.5 to 64.2.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
55.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.218
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$76.82
Resistance
$93.81
Bollinger %B
0.79
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$85.86
Above
EMA 21
$86.49
Above
EMA 50
$87.15
Below
EMA 200
$79.71
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
53
Growth
65
Profitability
91
Financial Health
94
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.9×
P/B Ratio
4.25×
PEG Ratio
2.44
Dividend Yield
3.97%
52W High
$98.71
52W Low
$52.18
Quality & Growth
ROE
1989.7%
ROA
810.1%
Gross Margin
7492.3%
Operating Margin
4012.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.53
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 21.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.2x; PEG ratio of 2.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 19.9%; Return on assets of 8.1%; Net margin of 16.6%; Gross margin of 74.9%; Current ratio of 1.88 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.53; Free cash flow per share is positive (4.56); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 6.3%; EPS growth accelerating (+11.8% -> +23.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 7.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full BHP Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →