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Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Stock Analysis

Basic Materials Updated August 18, 2026
$70.20
52W $65.10 – $151.03
50/100
$7.80B
78.8
1.42
AI Committee Verdict
Watch
50/100
Conviction: Contested · 50% agreement · 6 analysts
+2.7%
-9.9%
0.28:1
Contested

Is BLDR Bullish or Bearish?

Mixed. Innellis AI committee rates Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Watch with a composite score of 50/100 , based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement. Last updated August 18, 2026.

What Would Change This View

Upgrade to Buy
Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.21 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
Downgrade to Reduce
Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.79 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.

Executive Summary

The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 77.2 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.

Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case
  • Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
  • MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
  • Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
  • VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
  • P/E of 77.2 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
  • ROE of only 2.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
  • Revenue declining -9.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
  • EPS declining -86.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
  • 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
  • Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)

AI Investment Committee

Committee Consensus As of August 18, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 97%
of 95 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst bearish
35 / 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 77.2 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst bearish
35 / 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -9.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst neutral
56 / 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst bearish
35 / 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.3% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst bullish
80 / 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst neutral
58 / 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager neutral
45 / 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
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Investment Thesis Evolution

Committee score moved marginally from 49.8 to 49.8.

Comparing 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-18 (1 day apart).

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)
48.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.412
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$65.33
Resistance
$74.46
Bollinger %B
0.55
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$72.99 Below
EMA 21
$73.36 Below
EMA 50
$75.55 Below
EMA 200
$91.86 Below

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation
64
Growth
39
Profitability
29
Financial Health
71
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio 78.8×
P/B Ratio 1.97×
PEG Ratio -0.92
Dividend Yield 0.00%
52W High $151.03
52W Low $65.10
Quality & Growth
ROE 999.9%
ROA 387.3%
Gross Margin 2918.8%
Operating Margin 302.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
Debt / Equity 1.31
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 78.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.0x; PEG ratio of -0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 10.0%; Return on assets of 3.9%; Net margin of 0.7%; Gross margin of 29.2%; Current ratio of 1.79 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.31; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.88); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 9.5%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-75.9% -> +333.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -50.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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Explore BLDR Further

📈 Rating History 💰 Earnings 📰 Recent Events 🔄 What Changed 📖 Thesis Evolution 🔍 Similar Stocks
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