BLDR · NYSE · STOCK
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Stock Analysis
$52.89
52W $52.06 – $131.50
45/100
$5.69B
57.4
1.45
Is BLDR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Builders FirstSource (BLDR) Watch with a composite score of 45/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +14.84 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -5.16 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 56.5 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 2.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -9.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -86.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
45/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 99%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 56.5 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -9.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.6% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 46.8 to 45.2.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 40% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 5 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- New analyst(s) joined: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst joined: bearish at 35.
- Technical Analyst: +3 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
22.7
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.116
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$52.74
Resistance
$53.97
Bollinger %B
-0.01
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$55.31
Below
EMA 21
$57.84
Below
EMA 50
$62.97
Below
EMA 200
$81.97
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
39
Profitability
29
Financial Health
71
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
57.4×
P/B Ratio
1.43×
PEG Ratio
-0.67
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$131.50
52W Low
$52.06
Quality & Growth
ROE
999.9%
ROA
387.3%
Gross Margin
2918.8%
Operating Margin
302.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.31
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 57.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.4x; PEG ratio of -0.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 10.0%; Return on assets of 3.9%; Net margin of 0.7%; Gross margin of 29.2%; Current ratio of 1.79 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.31; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.88); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 9.5%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-75.9% -> +333.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -50.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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