CBSH · NASDAQ · STOCK
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Stock Analysis
$55.70
52W $46.99 – $60.92
69/100
$8.24B
13.8
0.58
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is CBSH Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) Buy with a composite score of 69/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +6.21 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -13.79 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is revenue growing 41.3% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. The main limiting factor is rsi at 25 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.1 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Revenue growing 41.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 5 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- RSI at 25 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
69/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 15%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 14.1 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 41.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− RSI at 25 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 5 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 67.5 to 68.8.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 54->46 (-8); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
25.0
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.150
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$53.43
Resistance
$56.67
Bollinger %B
-0.11
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$57.56
Below
EMA 21
$57.99
Below
EMA 50
$57.90
Below
EMA 200
$56.01
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Growth
77
Profitability
73
Financial Health
98
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.8×
P/B Ratio
1.87×
PEG Ratio
-14.28
Dividend Yield
1.95%
52W High
$60.92
52W Low
$46.99
Quality & Growth
ROE
1493.5%
ROA
172.0%
Gross Margin
8023.2%
Operating Margin
3500.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.56
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 13.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.9x; PEG ratio of -14.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 14.9%; Return on assets of 1.7%; Net margin of 26.9%; Gross margin of 80.2%; Current ratio of 3.69 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.56; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.25); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.1%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-5.0% -> +14.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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