CENX · NASDAQ · STOCK
Century Aluminum Company
$52.25
52W $20.91 – $70.43
56/100
$5.18B
8.6
2.00
Is CENX Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.00 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.00 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 26.2% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 8.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 58.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 383.8% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- RSI at 76 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 26.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
- News sentiment is negative (-0.20 across 10 articles, 14d) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 76%
of 95 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 8.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 4.5x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 383.8% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 76 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 26.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.20 across 10 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
76.4
Overbought
MACD Histogram
1.237
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$46.42
Resistance
$68.52
Bollinger %B
1.04
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$48.64
Above
EMA 21
$47.29
Above
EMA 50
$49.33
Above
EMA 200
$46.97
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
89
Profitability
36
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
8.6×
P/B Ratio
3.69×
PEG Ratio
0.02
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$70.43
52W Low
$20.91
Quality & Growth
ROE
506.3%
ROA
183.3%
Gross Margin
1927.1%
Operating Margin
1487.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.34
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 8.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.7x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 5.1%; Return on assets of 1.8%; Net margin of 22.6%; Gross margin of 19.3%; Current ratio of 2.75 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.34; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.53); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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