CENX · NASDAQ · STOCK
Century Aluminum (CENX) Stock Analysis
$33.86
52W $25.40 – $70.43
55/100
$3.38B
5.6
2.08
Is CENX Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.35 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.65 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 383.8% yoy. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 18.9% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 5.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 58.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 383.8% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 25 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 66%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 5.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 4.5x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 383.8% YoY
Technical Analyst
bearish
39
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.1 to 54.6.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
21.0
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.068
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$25.45
Resistance
$34.51
Bollinger %B
-0.00
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$35.44
Below
EMA 21
$37.43
Below
EMA 50
$41.07
Below
EMA 200
$44.80
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
95
Growth
60
Profitability
36
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
5.6×
P/B Ratio
2.41×
PEG Ratio
0.01
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$70.43
52W Low
$25.40
Quality & Growth
ROE
506.3%
ROA
183.3%
Gross Margin
1927.1%
Operating Margin
1487.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.34
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 5.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.4x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 5.1%; Return on assets of 1.8%; Net margin of 22.6%; Gross margin of 19.3%; Current ratio of 2.75 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.34; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.53); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.9%; EPS growth accelerating (+30.4% -> +50.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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