CF · NYSE · STOCK
CF Industries (CF) Stock Analysis
$129.61
52W $75.42 – $141.96
67/100
$19.92B
9.6
0.40
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is CF Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates CF Industries (CF) Buy with a composite score of 67/100
, based on 5 analysts with 100% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +8.01 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -11.99 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is eps growing 76.3% yoy. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 3069.37). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 8.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 40.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 76.3% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- RSI at 72 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
67/100
Agreement
100%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Unanimous
Sector Rank
Top 3%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 8.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 76.3% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 72 is in overbought territory
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 67.0 to 67.0.
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
72.3
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.662
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$109.80
Resistance
$130.01
Bollinger %B
1.04
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$122.09
Above
EMA 21
$120.53
Above
EMA 50
$118.63
Above
EMA 200
$109.07
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
90
Growth
73
Profitability
89
Financial Health
97
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.6×
P/B Ratio
3.46×
PEG Ratio
0.13
Dividend Yield
1.62%
52W High
$141.96
52W Low
$75.42
Quality & Growth
ROE
3007.4%
ROA
1032.8%
Gross Margin
4253.8%
Operating Margin
3811.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.63
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 9.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.5x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 30.1%; Return on assets of 10.3%; Net margin of 27.1%; Gross margin of 42.5%; Current ratio of 4.86 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.63; Free cash flow per share is positive (12.43); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 20.5%; EPS growth accelerating (-9.7% -> +56.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 91.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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