CF · NYSE · STOCK
CF Industries (CF) Stock Analysis
$111.52
52W $75.42 – $141.96
58/100
$17.14B
8.2
0.40
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is CF Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates CF Industries (CF) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.66 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.34 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 76.3% yoy. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 8.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 40.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 76.3% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- RSI at 21 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 25.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 40%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 8.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 76.3% YoY
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 21 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 25.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.4 to 58.3.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
20.8
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.740
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$109.82
Resistance
$112.25
Bollinger %B
0.21
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$115.10
Below
EMA 21
$119.06
Below
EMA 50
$121.45
Below
EMA 200
$113.52
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
92
Growth
73
Profitability
89
Financial Health
97
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
8.2×
P/B Ratio
2.98×
PEG Ratio
0.11
Dividend Yield
1.88%
52W High
$141.96
52W Low
$75.42
Quality & Growth
ROE
3007.4%
ROA
1032.8%
Gross Margin
4253.8%
Operating Margin
3811.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.63
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 8.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.0x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 30.1%; Return on assets of 10.3%; Net margin of 27.1%; Gross margin of 42.5%; Current ratio of 4.86 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.63; Free cash flow per share is positive (12.43); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 20.5%; EPS growth accelerating (-9.7% -> +56.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 91.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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