CLMT · NASDAQ · STOCK
Calumet (CLMT) Stock Analysis
$56.44
52W $17.45 – $59.87
52/100
$4.92B
-36.4
0.78
Is CLMT Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Calumet Inc. (CLMT) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.76 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.24 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 11 articles, 14d). Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 11 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 13.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -211.1% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 56.08 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 56.08) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 79%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 13.1x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 56.08) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.9 to 52.2.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 33% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 54->61 (+8).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
57.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.105
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.57
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$55.88
Above
EMA 21
$54.94
Above
EMA 50
$51.41
Above
EMA 200
$38.47
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
45
Profitability
6
Financial Health
52
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-36.4×
P/B Ratio
-4.35×
PEG Ratio
0.03
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$59.87
52W Low
$17.45
Quality & Growth
ROE
461.3%
ROA
-125.7%
Gross Margin
656.7%
Operating Margin
105.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-1.99
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -36.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -4.3x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 4.6%; Return on assets of -1.3%; Net margin of -3.0%; Gross margin of 6.6%; Current ratio of 0.84 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -1.99; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.72); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1168.6%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-746.5% -> +70.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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