ERO · NYSE · STOCK
Ero Copper (ERO) Stock Analysis
$37.59
52W $19.09 – $40.83
64/100
$3.92B
12.6
1.59
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ERO Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.68 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.32 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 94.9% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.0 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 30.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 94.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 116.5% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 21.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 7%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 12.0 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 94.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 21.4% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.38 across 8 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 63.8 to 64.3.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
55.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.047
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$24.41
Resistance
$39.75
Bollinger %B
0.70
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$37.02
Above
EMA 21
$36.52
Above
EMA 50
$34.87
Above
EMA 200
$29.70
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
91
Growth
56
Profitability
89
Financial Health
74
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.6×
P/B Ratio
3.24×
PEG Ratio
0.11
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$40.83
52W Low
$19.09
Quality & Growth
ROE
2873.5%
ROA
1397.3%
Gross Margin
4290.9%
Operating Margin
3614.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.47
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.2x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 28.7%; Return on assets of 14.0%; Net margin of 29.7%; Gross margin of 42.9%; Current ratio of 1.37 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.47; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.47); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 6.6%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-33.7% -> +20.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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