ESNT · NYSE · STOCK
Essent Group (ESNT) Stock Analysis
$65.71
52W $55.34 – $70.37
62/100
$6.13B
9.2
0.76
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ESNT Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.15 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.85 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Technical Analyst remains cautious — rsi at 26 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 8.9 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.09) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- RSI at 26 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 52%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 8.9 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 26 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.09) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.2 to 61.9.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 48->38 (-10); +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
26.1
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.337
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$58.62
Resistance
$67.06
Bollinger %B
-0.09
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$67.70
Below
EMA 21
$68.02
Below
EMA 50
$67.06
Below
EMA 200
$63.53
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
81
Growth
67
Profitability
88
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.2×
P/B Ratio
1.06×
PEG Ratio
2.12
Dividend Yield
2.05%
52W High
$70.37
52W Low
$55.34
Quality & Growth
ROE
1198.5%
ROA
927.3%
Gross Margin
8502.6%
Operating Margin
6201.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.09
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 9.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.1x; PEG ratio of 2.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.0%; Return on assets of 9.3%; Net margin of 51.4%; Gross margin of 85.0%; Current ratio of 0.49 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.09; Free cash flow per share is positive (9.10); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 14.9%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth roughly steady (+13.7% -> +14.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 7.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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