FICO · NYSE · STOCK
Fair Isaac (FICO) Stock Analysis
$667.21
52W $586.05 – $1858.91
52/100
$14.42B
19.2
1.34
Is FICO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Fair Isaac (FICO) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.04 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.96 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 35.4% yoy. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 145.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 35.4% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 37.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.54 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 90%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 145.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 37.3x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 35.4% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.54) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− Negative filing: Costs associated with exit or disposal (restructuring) (4d ago)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.1 to 52.0.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
32.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-2.474
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$651.34
Resistance
$709.12
Bollinger %B
0.25
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$706.13
Below
EMA 21
$794.63
Below
EMA 50
$930.39
Below
EMA 200
$1,180.91
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
94
Growth
71
Profitability
75
Financial Health
66
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.2×
P/B Ratio
-3.69×
PEG Ratio
0.56
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$1858.91
52W Low
$586.05
Quality & Growth
ROE
-3734.4%
ROA
3489.8%
Gross Margin
8510.0%
Operating Margin
5165.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-1.37
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 19.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -3.7x; PEG ratio of 0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -37.3%; Return on assets of 34.9%; Net margin of 34.1%; Gross margin of 85.1%; Current ratio of 1.18 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -1.37; Free cash flow per share is positive (43.94); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.8%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+70.5% -> -2.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 42.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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