GGG · NYSE · STOCK
Graco (GGG) Stock Analysis
$76.31
52W $72.51 – $95.69
62/100
$12.44B
23.8
0.91
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is GGG Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Graco Inc. (GGG) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.01 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.99 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.01) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. The main limiting factor is price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 20.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.01) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 5 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 18%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 20.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.01) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 5 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.0 to 62.0.
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
39.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.278
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$74.00
Resistance
$76.86
Bollinger %B
0.28
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$77.09
Below
EMA 21
$78.12
Below
EMA 50
$78.51
Below
EMA 200
$80.74
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
55
Growth
75
Profitability
95
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.8×
P/B Ratio
5.04×
PEG Ratio
1.90
Dividend Yield
1.51%
52W High
$95.69
52W Low
$72.51
Quality & Growth
ROE
1966.3%
ROA
1593.8%
Gross Margin
5264.2%
Operating Margin
2743.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.02
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 23.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.0x; PEG ratio of 1.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 19.7%; Return on assets of 15.9%; Net margin of 23.5%; Gross margin of 52.6%; Current ratio of 2.99 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.02; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.73); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.8%; EPS growth accelerating (-14.3% -> +37.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 21.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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