JEF · NYSE · STOCK
Jefferies (JEF) Stock Analysis
$47.40
52W $35.53 – $71.04
56/100
$9.73B
12.9
1.49
Is JEF Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Jefferies (JEF) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.43 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.57 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Technical Analyst remains cautious — price structure making lower highs and lower lows. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.3 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.4% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 31.0% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 3.35 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 24 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 86%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 12.3 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 3.35 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 31.0% YoY
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.4 to 55.6.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 67% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral.
- Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
24.4
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.598
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$46.62
Resistance
$47.87
Bollinger %B
0.12
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$49.57
Below
EMA 21
$51.39
Below
EMA 50
$52.81
Below
EMA 200
$53.56
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
57
Profitability
45
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.9×
P/B Ratio
0.97×
PEG Ratio
0.37
Dividend Yield
3.34%
52W High
$71.04
52W Low
$35.53
Quality & Growth
ROE
671.9%
ROA
93.5%
Gross Margin
6791.6%
Operating Margin
748.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.48
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.7%; Return on assets of 0.9%; Net margin of 7.4%; Gross margin of 67.9%; Current ratio of 0.78 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.48; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.26); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 12.6%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-27.1% -> +45.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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