JEF · NYSE · STOCK
Jefferies (JEF) Stock Analysis
$44.79
52W $35.53 – $66.60
55/100
$8.49B
11.5
1.54
Is JEF Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Jefferies (JEF) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 16, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.94 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.06 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 30 articles, 14d). Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2739.42). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.9 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.4% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 30 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 3.35 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.71 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 16, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 79%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.9 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 3.35 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 30 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2739.42)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.8 to 55.1.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 42->52 (+10).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-16 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.139
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$43.18
Resistance
$47.04
Bollinger %B
0.32
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$44.90
Below
EMA 21
$46.29
Below
EMA 50
$49.02
Below
EMA 200
$52.25
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
49
Profitability
45
Financial Health
20
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.5×
P/B Ratio
0.83×
PEG Ratio
0.39
Dividend Yield
3.56%
52W High
$66.60
52W Low
$35.53
Quality & Growth
ROE
671.9%
ROA
93.5%
Gross Margin
7645.2%
Operating Margin
1626.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.71
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 11.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.8x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.7%; Return on assets of 0.9%; Net margin of 7.5%; Gross margin of 76.5%; Current ratio of 1.28 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.71; Free cash flow per share is positive (21.14); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 6.5%; EPS growth decelerating (+45.7% -> +5.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 6.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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