KALU · NASDAQ · STOCK
Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Stock Analysis
$151.50
52W $77.24 – $199.89
58/100
$2.48B
10.9
1.58
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is KALU Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +17.18 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -2.82 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is revenue growing 32.8% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. The main limiting factor is high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.58) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.9 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 26.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.2% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 32.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 246.1% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 1.58 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.58) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 42%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.9 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 1.58 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 32.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.58) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 5 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.8 to 57.8.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
47.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.494
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$105.61
Resistance
$195.62
Bollinger %B
0.48
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$151.81
Below
EMA 21
$153.42
Below
EMA 50
$158.11
Below
EMA 200
$148.38
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
94
Growth
64
Profitability
35
Financial Health
84
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.9×
P/B Ratio
2.62×
PEG Ratio
0.04
Dividend Yield
2.03%
52W High
$199.89
52W Low
$77.24
Quality & Growth
ROE
1361.8%
ROA
438.6%
Gross Margin
1154.5%
Operating Margin
824.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.13
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.6x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.6%; Return on assets of 4.4%; Net margin of 5.5%; Gross margin of 11.5%; Current ratio of 2.50 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.13; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.34); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 103.6%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+144.4% -> +47.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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