KALU · NASDAQ · STOCK
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$193.40
52W $72.99 – $195.96
63/100
$3.16B
13.9
1.60
Is KALU Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.82 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.18 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 32.8% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.58) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 26.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 32.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 246.1% YoY — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 1.58 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- RSI at 73 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.58) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 27.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 38%
of 95 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 1.58 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 32.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 73 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.58) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
72.5
Overbought
MACD Histogram
3.826
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$105.61
Resistance
$195.62
Bollinger %B
1.05
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$178.29
Above
EMA 21
$172.66
Above
EMA 50
$170.69
Above
EMA 200
$143.79
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
91
Profitability
35
Financial Health
84
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.9×
P/B Ratio
3.34×
PEG Ratio
0.06
Dividend Yield
1.59%
52W High
$195.96
52W Low
$72.99
Quality & Growth
ROE
1361.8%
ROA
438.6%
Gross Margin
1154.5%
Operating Margin
824.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.12
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 13.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.3x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.6%; Return on assets of 4.4%; Net margin of 5.5%; Gross margin of 11.5%; Current ratio of 2.50 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.12; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.34); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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