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MCO · NYSE · STOCK

Moody's (MCO) Stock Analysis

Financial Services Updated September 22, 2026
$469.05
52W $402.28 – $546.88
57/100
$80.94B
29.6
1.33
AI Committee Verdict
Watch
57/100
Conviction: Contested · 50% agreement · 6 analysts
+3.1%
-0.1%
31.30:1
Contested

Is MCO Bullish or Bearish?

Mixed. Innellis AI committee rates Moody's Corporation (MCO) Watch with a composite score of 57/100 , based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement. Last updated September 22, 2026.

What Would Change This View

Upgrade to Buy
Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.27 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
Downgrade to Reduce
Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.73 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.

Executive Summary

The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.73) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.

Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case
  • ROE of 79.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
  • EPS growing 34.0% YoY — Growth
  • 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
  • VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
  • News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 12 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
  • P/E of 29.0 is moderate-to-rich — Value
  • Price-to-book of 22.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
  • Debt-to-equity of 1.73 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
  • Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
  • MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
  • High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.73) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)

AI Investment Committee

Committee Consensus As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 81%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst neutral
45 / 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 79.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 29.0 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst bullish
66 / 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 34.0% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst neutral
48 / 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst bearish
32 / 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.73) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst bullish
80 / 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst bullish
68 / 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 12 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager neutral
55 / 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
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Investment Thesis Evolution

Committee score moved marginally from 53.8 to 56.7.

Analyst-level changes:
  • Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
  • News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
  • Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
  • Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).

Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)
37.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-3.032
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$466.75
Resistance
$481.87
Bollinger %B
0.23
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$471.80 Below
EMA 21
$480.02 Below
EMA 50
$481.58 Below
EMA 200
$476.02 Below

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation
47
Growth
74
Profitability
100
Financial Health
17
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio 29.6×
P/B Ratio 27.11×
PEG Ratio 0.87
Dividend Yield 0.86%
52W High $546.88
52W Low $402.28
Quality & Growth
ROE 6065.6%
ROA 1553.4%
Gross Margin 7193.6%
Operating Margin 4509.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
Debt / Equity 2.49
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 29.6 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 27.1x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 60.7%; Return on assets of 15.5%; Net margin of 34.3%; Gross margin of 71.9%; Current ratio of 1.19 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.49; Free cash flow per share is positive (19.36); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 9.4%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+19.0% -> +8.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 31.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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