MCO · NYSE · STOCK
Moody's (MCO) Stock Analysis
$469.05
52W $402.28 – $546.88
57/100
$80.94B
29.6
1.33
Is MCO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Moody's Corporation (MCO) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.27 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.73 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.73) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 79.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 34.0% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 12 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 29.0 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 22.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.73 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.73) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 81%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 79.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 29.0 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 34.0% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.73) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 12 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.8 to 56.7.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
37.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-3.032
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$466.75
Resistance
$481.87
Bollinger %B
0.23
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$471.80
Below
EMA 21
$480.02
Below
EMA 50
$481.58
Below
EMA 200
$476.02
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
47
Growth
74
Profitability
100
Financial Health
17
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
29.6×
P/B Ratio
27.11×
PEG Ratio
0.87
Dividend Yield
0.86%
52W High
$546.88
52W Low
$402.28
Quality & Growth
ROE
6065.6%
ROA
1553.4%
Gross Margin
7193.6%
Operating Margin
4509.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.49
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 29.6 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 27.1x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 60.7%; Return on assets of 15.5%; Net margin of 34.3%; Gross margin of 71.9%; Current ratio of 1.19 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.49; Free cash flow per share is positive (19.36); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 9.4%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+19.0% -> +8.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 31.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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