MOS · NYSE · STOCK
Mosaic (MOS) Stock Analysis
$18.73
52W $18.68 – $32.25
54/100
$5.96B
93.7
0.83
Is MOS Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Mosaic Company (MOS) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.59 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.41 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Supporting evidence favours the bullish case. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 0.6x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 12 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- ROE of only -5.3% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 12 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 36.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 67%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Price-to-book of 0.6x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -5.3% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 36.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 12 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.2 to 54.4.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
11.6
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.472
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.01
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$20.72
Below
EMA 21
$22.11
Below
EMA 50
$22.88
Below
EMA 200
$24.40
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
38
Profitability
12
Financial Health
72
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
93.7×
P/B Ratio
0.52×
PEG Ratio
-1.01
Dividend Yield
4.70%
52W High
$32.25
52W Low
$18.68
Quality & Growth
ROE
447.4%
ROA
220.9%
Gross Margin
1154.8%
Operating Margin
140.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.51
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 93.7 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.5x; PEG ratio of -1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 4.5%; Return on assets of 2.2%; Net margin of 0.4%; Gross margin of 11.5%; Current ratio of 1.34 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.51; Free cash flow per share is negative (-2.98); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.3%; EPS growth accelerating (-77.3% -> +160.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -74.5%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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