MT · NYSE · STOCK
ArcelorMittal (MT) Stock Analysis
$64.12
52W $36.70 – $79.68
56/100
$48.79B
26.8
1.74
Is MT Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.89 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.11 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 0.6x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.25) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- ROE of only 3.3% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- EPS declining -27.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 25.3% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 59%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Price-to-book of 0.6x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only 3.3% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -27.0% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.25) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 25.3% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.2 to 56.1.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->48 (+10).
- Value Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 55->60 (+5).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
37.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.761
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$58.59
Resistance
$67.55
Bollinger %B
0.22
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$64.94
Below
EMA 21
$67.92
Below
EMA 50
$69.58
Below
EMA 200
$61.98
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
84
Growth
72
Profitability
19
Financial Health
76
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
26.8×
P/B Ratio
0.89×
PEG Ratio
-1.01
Dividend Yield
1.08%
52W High
$79.68
52W Low
$36.70
Quality & Growth
ROE
578.7%
ROA
322.6%
Gross Margin
957.6%
Operating Margin
426.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.26
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 26.8 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.9x; PEG ratio of -1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 5.8%; Return on assets of 3.2%; Net margin of 2.9%; Gross margin of 9.6%; Current ratio of 1.43 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.26; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.83); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 15.9%; EPS growth accelerating (-11.6% -> +17.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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