MTB · NYSE · STOCK
M&T Bank (MTB) Stock Analysis
$223.44
52W $174.76 – $255.95
68/100
$32.89B
12.0
0.56
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MTB Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates M&T Bank (MTB) Buy with a composite score of 68/100
, based on 5 analysts with 80% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +7.29 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -12.71 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 86.2% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Technical Analyst remains cautious — rsi at 25 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.8 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 4.1% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 86.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- RSI at 25 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
68/100
Agreement
80%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 21%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.8 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
83
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 86.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 25 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.8 to 67.7.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
25.3
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-1.100
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$203.10
Resistance
$238.53
Bollinger %B
0.08
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$231.35
Below
EMA 21
$235.80
Below
EMA 50
$238.16
Below
EMA 200
$224.46
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
89
Profitability
66
Financial Health
46
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.0×
P/B Ratio
1.27×
PEG Ratio
0.54
Dividend Yield
2.64%
52W High
$255.95
52W Low
$174.76
Quality & Growth
ROE
977.1%
ROA
133.5%
Gross Margin
7602.8%
Operating Margin
3319.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.65
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.3x; PEG ratio of 0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.8%; Return on assets of 1.3%; Net margin of 24.4%; Gross margin of 76.0%; Current ratio of 0.42 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.65; Free cash flow per share is positive (23.52); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 13.0%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-11.6% -> +28.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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