MTG · NYSE · STOCK
MGIC Investment (MTG) Stock Analysis
$29.29
52W $24.69 – $31.89
66/100
$6.04B
9.2
0.65
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MTG Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) Buy with a composite score of 66/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +9.07 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -10.93 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Technical Analyst remains cautious — rsi at 27 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 8.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.3x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.6% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.13) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -1.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- RSI at 27 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
66/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 31%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 8.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -1.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 27 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.13) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
76
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.56 across 9 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 66.0 to 65.9.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: score 81->76 (-5); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 48->38 (-10); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
27.0
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.222
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$26.19
Resistance
$29.53
Bollinger %B
0.03
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$30.02
Below
EMA 21
$30.35
Below
EMA 50
$29.97
Below
EMA 200
$28.22
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
83
Growth
73
Profitability
93
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.2×
P/B Ratio
1.23×
PEG Ratio
2.01
Dividend Yield
2.11%
52W High
$31.89
52W Low
$24.69
Quality & Growth
ROE
1434.4%
ROA
1112.0%
Gross Margin
9241.2%
Operating Margin
7536.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.13
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 9.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.2x; PEG ratio of 2.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 14.3%; Return on assets of 11.1%; Net margin of 59.2%; Gross margin of 92.4%; Current ratio of 37.66 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.13; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.37); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 12.8%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+1.3% -> +14.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 6.1%; Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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