NLY · NYSE · STOCK
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Stock Analysis
$21.30
52W $20.00 – $24.52
59/100
$15.87B
5.2
1.24
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is NLY Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.96 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.04 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 50.9% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 7.22) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 5.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 18.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 14.8% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 50.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 231.1% YoY — Growth
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 7.22 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- RSI at 12 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 7.22) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.03 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 16%
of 80 Real Estate peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 5.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 7.22 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
83
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 50.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− RSI at 12 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 7.22) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2517.06)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.0 to 59.0.
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
12.2
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.183
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$20.88
Resistance
$21.07
Bollinger %B
0.03
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$21.70
Below
EMA 21
$22.21
Below
EMA 50
$22.50
Below
EMA 200
$22.24
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
70
Profitability
69
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
5.2×
P/B Ratio
0.91×
PEG Ratio
0.02
Dividend Yield
13.54%
52W High
$24.52
52W Low
$20.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
1259.9%
ROA
149.5%
Gross Margin
9927.6%
Operating Margin
11184.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
7.38
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 5.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.9x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.6%; Return on assets of 1.5%; Net margin of 40.5%; Gross margin of 99.3%; Current ratio of 0.04 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 7.38; Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.43); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.6%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth roughly steady (+2.7% -> +3.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 8.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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