NLY · NYSE · STOCK
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Stock Analysis
$21.25
52W $20.00 – $24.52
62/100
$16.14B
5.3
1.24
Is NLY Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 4 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.36 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.64 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- RSI at 13 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
4
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 10%
of 80 Real Estate peers
Growth Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− RSI at 13 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 58.3 to 61.6.
- Bullish support removed: 6 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Risk Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 83->80 (-3).
- Risk Analyst abstained (was bearish at 32).
- Value Analyst abstained (was bullish at 68).
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
12.5
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.170
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$20.88
Resistance
$22.11
Bollinger %B
-0.08
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$22.18
Below
EMA 21
$22.55
Below
EMA 50
$22.67
Below
EMA 200
$22.28
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
70
Profitability
69
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
5.3×
P/B Ratio
0.92×
PEG Ratio
0.02
Dividend Yield
13.31%
52W High
$24.52
52W Low
$20.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
1259.9%
ROA
149.5%
Gross Margin
9927.6%
Operating Margin
11184.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
7.38
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 5.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.9x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.6%; Return on assets of 1.5%; Net margin of 40.5%; Gross margin of 99.3%; Current ratio of 0.04 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 7.38; Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.43); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.6%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth roughly steady (+2.7% -> +3.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 8.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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