NOC · NYSE · STOCK
Northrop Grumman (NOC) Stock Analysis
$480.82
52W $470.06 – $774.00
54/100
$68.29B
15.2
-0.11
Is NOC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Northrop Grumman (NOC) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.61 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.39 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 26.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 113 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 74%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 26.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 4.9x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bearish
39
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 113 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.9 to 54.4.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 67% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 62->55 (-7).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
36.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.232
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$479.89
Resistance
$507.25
Bollinger %B
0.23
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$485.71
Below
EMA 21
$499.80
Below
EMA 50
$519.54
Below
EMA 200
$561.11
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
88
Growth
75
Profitability
58
Financial Health
55
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.2×
P/B Ratio
3.82×
PEG Ratio
0.95
Dividend Yield
1.99%
52W High
$774.00
52W Low
$470.06
Quality & Growth
ROE
2508.1%
ROA
814.0%
Gross Margin
2006.0%
Operating Margin
1018.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.91
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 15.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.8x; PEG ratio of 1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 25.1%; Return on assets of 8.1%; Net margin of 10.5%; Gross margin of 20.1%; Current ratio of 1.17 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.91; Free cash flow per share is positive (25.66); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.5%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-15.1% -> +25.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 8.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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