NTR · NYSE · STOCK
Nutrien (NTR) Stock Analysis
$79.50
52W $53.03 – $85.36
60/100
$38.15B
16.1
1.08
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is NTR Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 06, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.79 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.21 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 25.1% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.9% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 76.9% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- RSI at 74 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 25.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 06, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 45%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value
Growth Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 76.9% YoY
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 74 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 25.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2704.43)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.2 to 60.2.
Comparing 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-06 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
74.1
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.802
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$64.09
Resistance
$85.33
Bollinger %B
0.87
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$76.99
Above
EMA 21
$73.78
Above
EMA 50
$70.85
Above
EMA 200
$67.77
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
51
Profitability
40
Financial Health
75
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.1×
P/B Ratio
1.47×
PEG Ratio
0.21
Dividend Yield
2.76%
52W High
$85.36
52W Low
$53.03
Quality & Growth
ROE
896.9%
ROA
434.2%
Gross Margin
3101.9%
Operating Margin
1469.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.49
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.5x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.0%; Return on assets of 4.3%; Net margin of 8.4%; Gross margin of 31.0%; Current ratio of 1.39 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.49; Free cash flow per share is positive (4.40); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 4.7%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-38.6% -> +411.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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