NTR · NYSE · STOCK
Nutrien (NTR) Stock Analysis
$67.52
52W $53.03 – $85.36
55/100
$32.39B
13.7
1.08
Is NTR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.58 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.42 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 14.0 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.0 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.9% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 76.9% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- RSI at 21 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 65%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 14.0 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 76.9% YoY
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 21 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.4 to 55.4.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 48->38 (-10); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
21.1
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.664
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$64.09
Resistance
$82.49
Bollinger %B
0.09
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$70.30
Below
EMA 21
$72.15
Below
EMA 50
$72.30
Below
EMA 200
$69.09
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
51
Profitability
40
Financial Health
75
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.7×
P/B Ratio
1.25×
PEG Ratio
0.18
Dividend Yield
3.25%
52W High
$85.36
52W Low
$53.03
Quality & Growth
ROE
896.9%
ROA
434.2%
Gross Margin
3101.9%
Operating Margin
1469.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.49
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 13.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.2x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.0%; Return on assets of 4.3%; Net margin of 8.4%; Gross margin of 31.0%; Current ratio of 1.39 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.49; Free cash flow per share is positive (4.40); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 4.7%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-38.6% -> +411.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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