ORI · NYSE · STOCK
Old Republic International (ORI) Stock Analysis
$38.78
52W $36.65 – $46.76
62/100
$9.55B
8.4
0.61
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ORI Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Old Republic International (ORI) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +12.50 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -7.50 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 8.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 18.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.4% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 29.2% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- RSI at 18 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.43 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 49%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 8.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 29.2% YoY
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− RSI at 18 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.27) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.43 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 58.7 to 62.5.
- Recommendation changed from Watch to Buy.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->46 (+8); +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
18.1
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.199
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$38.35
Resistance
$39.27
Bollinger %B
-0.11
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$40.51
Below
EMA 21
$41.15
Below
EMA 50
$41.43
Below
EMA 200
$40.91
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
36
Profitability
62
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
8.4×
P/B Ratio
1.55×
PEG Ratio
0.29
Dividend Yield
9.52%
52W High
$46.76
52W Low
$36.65
Quality & Growth
ROE
1582.9%
ROA
313.5%
Gross Margin
5190.2%
Operating Margin
1516.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.38
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 8.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.6x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 15.8%; Return on assets of 3.1%; Net margin of 11.8%; Gross margin of 51.9%; Current ratio of 0.00 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.38; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.32); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 5.0%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-8.1% -> +11.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -8.4%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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