OZK · NASDAQ · STOCK
Bank OZK (OZK) Stock Analysis
$47.00
52W $42.37 – $53.39
67/100
$5.21B
7.9
0.87
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is OZK Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Bank OZK (OZK) Buy with a composite score of 67/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +7.71 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -12.29 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.08) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. The main limiting factor is eps declining -1.7% yoy despite any revenue growth. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 7.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.6% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 67.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- EPS declining -1.7% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- RSI at 28 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
67/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 24%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 7.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Revenue growing 67.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− EPS declining -1.7% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− RSI at 28 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.08) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 6 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 63.5 to 67.3.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->46 (+8); +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
27.7
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.113
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$47.28
Resistance
$48.16
Bollinger %B
0.07
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$48.40
Below
EMA 21
$49.05
Below
EMA 50
$49.68
Below
EMA 200
$48.91
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
38
Profitability
66
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
7.9×
P/B Ratio
0.83×
PEG Ratio
-3.49
Dividend Yield
3.90%
52W High
$53.39
52W Low
$42.37
Quality & Growth
ROE
1167.2%
ROA
175.4%
Gross Margin
5603.6%
Operating Margin
3234.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.11
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 7.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.8x; PEG ratio of -3.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 11.7%; Return on assets of 1.8%; Net margin of 25.0%; Gross margin of 56.0%; Current ratio of 0.00 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.11; Free cash flow per share is positive (6.95); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.1%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-6.5% -> +3.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -5.7%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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