PARR · NYSE · STOCK
Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Stock Analysis
$81.88
52W $33.43 – $89.45
69/100
$4.11B
4.7
0.75
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is PARR Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) Buy with a composite score of 69/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +5.57 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -14.43 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 4.9 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 4.9 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 53.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
69/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 2%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 4.9 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.60 across 18 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 69.4 to 69.4.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.228
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$54.20
Resistance
$86.98
Bollinger %B
0.45
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$84.27
Below
EMA 21
$82.80
Below
EMA 50
$79.49
Above
EMA 200
$63.61
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
94
Growth
75
Profitability
62
Financial Health
76
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
4.7×
P/B Ratio
2.63×
PEG Ratio
0.00
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$89.45
52W Low
$33.43
Quality & Growth
ROE
2443.8%
ROA
907.6%
Gross Margin
2266.7%
Operating Margin
1424.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.80
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 4.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.6x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 24.4%; Return on assets of 9.1%; Net margin of 9.9%; Gross margin of 22.7%; Current ratio of 1.61 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.80; Free cash flow per share is positive (9.05); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 23.6%; EPS growth accelerating (-33.3% -> +1194.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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