EXE · NASDAQ · STOCK
Expand Energy (EXE) Stock Analysis
$88.19
52W $83.25 – $126.62
71/100
$20.42B
7.6
0.32
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is EXE Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Expand Energy (EXE) Buy with a composite score of 71/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +3.94 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -16.06 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.90 across 10 articles, 14d). Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 7.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Revenue growing 60.7% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 2866.7% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
71/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 0%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 7.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
71
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 60.7% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.27) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
87
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.90 across 10 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 70.3 to 71.1.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 82->87 (+4); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
52.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.452
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$85.14
Resistance
$90.44
Bollinger %B
0.55
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$87.56
Above
EMA 21
$88.70
Below
EMA 50
$90.84
Below
EMA 200
$96.17
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
56
Profitability
78
Financial Health
57
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
7.6×
P/B Ratio
1.08×
PEG Ratio
0.00
Dividend Yield
2.61%
52W High
$126.62
52W Low
$83.25
Quality & Growth
ROE
979.1%
ROA
643.1%
Gross Margin
6311.9%
Operating Margin
2598.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.19
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 7.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.1x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.8%; Return on assets of 6.4%; Net margin of 20.8%; Gross margin of 63.1%; Current ratio of 0.96 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.19; Free cash flow per share is positive (10.67); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 14.9%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+91.5% -> -65.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 20.9%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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