PKG · NYSE · STOCK
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Analysis
$253.14
52W $191.50 – $259.98
56/100
$22.52B
32.7
0.81
Is PKG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.22 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.78 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Supporting evidence favours the bullish case. The main limiting factor is p/e of 33.2 is moderate-to-rich. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 3.2% pays you to wait — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 33.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 4.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -23.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 50%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ Dividend yield of 3.2% pays you to wait
− P/E of 33.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -23.3% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.8 to 55.8.
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
52.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.159
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.50
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$252.80
Above
EMA 21
$250.19
Above
EMA 50
$242.03
Above
EMA 200
$224.87
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
60
Growth
46
Profitability
48
Financial Health
89
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
32.7×
P/B Ratio
4.79×
PEG Ratio
-1.41
Dividend Yield
2.08%
52W High
$259.98
52W Low
$191.50
Quality & Growth
ROE
1672.2%
ROA
703.8%
Gross Margin
2010.8%
Operating Margin
1271.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.94
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 32.7 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.8x; PEG ratio of -1.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.7%; Return on assets of 7.0%; Net margin of 7.2%; Gross margin of 20.1%; Current ratio of 2.94 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.94; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.40); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.5%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+3.4% -> -2.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -5.2%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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