PKG · NYSE · STOCK
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Analysis
$230.98
52W $191.50 – $259.98
49/100
$20.54B
29.8
0.77
Is PKG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.83 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.17 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 3.2% pays you to wait — Value
Bear Case
- P/E of 29.6 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 4.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -23.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 91%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ Dividend yield of 3.2% pays you to wait
− P/E of 29.6 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -23.3% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.7 to 49.2.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral.
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
47.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.077
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$223.05
Resistance
$242.53
Bollinger %B
0.37
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$230.62
Above
EMA 21
$232.94
Below
EMA 50
$235.72
Below
EMA 200
$227.63
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
66
Growth
46
Profitability
48
Financial Health
89
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
29.8×
P/B Ratio
4.37×
PEG Ratio
-1.29
Dividend Yield
2.39%
52W High
$259.98
52W Low
$191.50
Quality & Growth
ROE
1672.2%
ROA
703.8%
Gross Margin
2010.8%
Operating Margin
1271.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.94
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 29.8 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.4x; PEG ratio of -1.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.7%; Return on assets of 7.0%; Net margin of 7.2%; Gross margin of 20.1%; Current ratio of 2.94 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.94; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.40); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.5%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+3.4% -> -2.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -5.2%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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