RIO · NYSE · STOCK
Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Stock Analysis
$94.77
52W $66.49 – $112.58
58/100
$154.02B
12.7
0.66
Is RIO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Watch with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.27 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.73 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 13.1 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.1 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 19.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.9% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 43%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.1 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.7 to 57.7.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
48.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.014
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$86.75
Resistance
$101.45
Bollinger %B
0.41
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$94.51
Above
EMA 21
$95.82
Below
EMA 50
$97.25
Below
EMA 200
$93.02
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
96
Growth
42
Profitability
69
Financial Health
76
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.7×
P/B Ratio
2.33×
PEG Ratio
0.73
Dividend Yield
4.89%
52W High
$112.58
52W Low
$66.49
Quality & Growth
ROE
1605.9%
ROA
779.8%
Gross Margin
2732.0%
Operating Margin
2732.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.35
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.3x; PEG ratio of 0.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.1%; Return on assets of 7.8%; Net margin of 19.6%; Gross margin of 27.3%; Current ratio of 1.42 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.35; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.51); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.7%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+26.8% -> +12.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 30.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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