RIO · NYSE · STOCK
Rio Tinto Group
$101.00
52W $60.22 – $112.58
60/100
$164.11B
13.6
0.66
Is RIO Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Rio Tinto Group (RIO) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.95 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.05 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Growth Analyst remains cautious — eps declining -14.0% yoy despite any revenue growth. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 18.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 4.6% pays you to wait — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- EPS declining -14.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 54%
of 95 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 18.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -14.0% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals
Risk Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
72
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.46 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
66.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.144
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$86.75
Resistance
$101.45
Bollinger %B
0.84
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$99.14
Above
EMA 21
$96.80
Above
EMA 50
$96.70
Above
EMA 200
$90.19
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
95
Profitability
69
Financial Health
76
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.6×
P/B Ratio
2.50×
PEG Ratio
0.78
Dividend Yield
4.01%
52W High
$112.58
52W Low
$60.22
Quality & Growth
ROE
1605.9%
ROA
779.8%
Gross Margin
2732.0%
Operating Margin
2732.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.35
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 13.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.5x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.1%; Return on assets of 7.8%; Net margin of 19.6%; Gross margin of 27.3%; Current ratio of 1.42 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.35; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.51); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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