SIGI · NASDAQ · STOCK
Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) Stock Analysis
$87.72
52W $72.78 – $100.40
66/100
$5.23B
10.9
0.28
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is SIGI Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) Buy with a composite score of 66/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +8.65 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -11.35 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. The main limiting factor is macd histogram negative -- bearish momentum. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- EPS growing 31.2% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.25) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.88 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
66/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 29%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 31.2% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.25) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.88 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 8 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 61.6 to 66.3.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: score 62->66 (+3); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->48 (+10).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
33.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.331
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$84.52
Resistance
$89.03
Bollinger %B
0.13
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$88.70
Below
EMA 21
$90.27
Below
EMA 50
$91.62
Below
EMA 200
$88.33
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
69
Profitability
53
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.9×
P/B Ratio
1.44×
PEG Ratio
0.35
Dividend Yield
1.96%
52W High
$100.40
52W Low
$72.78
Quality & Growth
ROE
1292.4%
ROA
330.1%
Gross Margin
4822.8%
Operating Margin
1102.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.25
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.4x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.9%; Return on assets of 3.3%; Net margin of 9.1%; Gross margin of 48.2%; Current ratio of 0.22 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.25; Free cash flow per share is positive (19.75); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 15.2%; EPS growth accelerating (-34.2% -> +15.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 48.9%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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