STWD · NYSE · STOCK
Starwood Property Trust (STWD) Stock Analysis
$16.08
52W $15.49 – $20.84
53/100
$5.96B
24.0
1.03
Is STWD Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Starwood Property Trust (STWD) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 06, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.83 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.17 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 3.25) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 9.6% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 5 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 26.1 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- ROE of only 3.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.25 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -43.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 06, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 81%
of 80 Real Estate peers
Value Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value
− P/E of 26.1 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -43.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.25) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 5 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2704.43)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.2 to 53.2.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-06 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
53.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.013
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$16.07
Resistance
$16.54
Bollinger %B
0.43
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$15.94
Above
EMA 21
$16.09
Below
EMA 50
$16.37
Below
EMA 200
$17.37
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
88
Growth
35
Profitability
48
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.0×
P/B Ratio
0.91×
PEG Ratio
-0.63
Dividend Yield
11.94%
52W High
$20.84
52W Low
$15.49
Quality & Growth
ROE
605.6%
ROA
65.1%
Gross Margin
7669.1%
Operating Margin
7341.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.65
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 24.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.9x; PEG ratio of -0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.1%; Return on assets of 0.7%; Net margin of 11.3%; Gross margin of 76.7%; Current ratio of 0.06 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.65; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.20); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 3.5%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-7.1% -> +2.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -7.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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