STWD · NYSE · STOCK
Starwood Property Trust (STWD) Stock Analysis
$15.15
52W $14.89 – $20.17
54/100
$5.56B
22.3
1.03
Is STWD Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Starwood Property Trust (STWD) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 4 analysts with 75% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.94 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.06 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 21 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 24 -- oversold on the larger timeframe too — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
75%
Analysts
4
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 36%
of 80 Real Estate peers
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2517.06)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 49.2 to 54.1.
- Conviction changed from moderate to high.
- Committee agreement increased modestly from 67% to 75%.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Risk Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 48->52 (+5).
- Risk Analyst abstained (was bearish at 32).
- Value Analyst abstained (was neutral at 51).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
25.8
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.072
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$13.76
Resistance
$16.54
Bollinger %B
0.11
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$15.26
Below
EMA 21
$15.59
Below
EMA 50
$16.02
Below
EMA 200
$17.18
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
90
Growth
35
Profitability
48
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.3×
P/B Ratio
0.85×
PEG Ratio
-0.59
Dividend Yield
12.80%
52W High
$20.17
52W Low
$14.89
Quality & Growth
ROE
605.6%
ROA
65.1%
Gross Margin
7669.1%
Operating Margin
7341.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.65
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.8x; PEG ratio of -0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.1%; Return on assets of 0.7%; Net margin of 11.3%; Gross margin of 76.7%; Current ratio of 0.06 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.65; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.20); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 3.5%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-7.1% -> +2.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -7.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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