TCBI · NASDAQ · STOCK
Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) Stock Analysis
$94.86
52W $75.41 – $108.92
68/100
$4.13B
12.3
0.67
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is TCBI Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) Buy with a composite score of 68/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 21, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +7.22 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -12.78 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 11.3 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Revenue growing 62.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 184.5% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Negative filing: Delisting notice or failure to satisfy listing rule (6d ago) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 21, 2026
Overall Committee Score
68/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 10%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 11.3 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 62.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.18) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− Negative filing: Delisting notice or failure to satisfy listing rule (6d ago)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2518.64)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 67.8 to 67.8.
Comparing 2026-09-20 to 2026-09-21 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
30.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.253
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$90.05
Resistance
$97.98
Bollinger %B
0.02
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$96.56
Below
EMA 21
$97.58
Below
EMA 50
$98.81
Below
EMA 200
$96.78
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
78
Profitability
62
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.3×
P/B Ratio
1.17×
PEG Ratio
0.06
Dividend Yield
0.42%
52W High
$108.92
52W Low
$75.41
Quality & Growth
ROE
909.4%
ROA
104.7%
Gross Margin
6240.0%
Operating Margin
2484.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.23
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.2x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.1%; Return on assets of 1.0%; Net margin of 18.6%; Gross margin of 62.4%; Current ratio of 26.12 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.23; Free cash flow per share is positive (20.57); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 3.7%; EPS growth accelerating (-26.4% -> +17.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 15.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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