THG · NYSE · STOCK
Hanover Insurance (THG) Stock Analysis
$218.21
52W $166.54 – $236.07
71/100
$7.77B
10.5
0.28
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is THG Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Hanover Insurance (THG) Buy with a composite score of 71/100
, based on 6 analysts with 100% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +4.29 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -15.71 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. The main limiting factor is 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 21.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.7% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 37.6% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
71/100
Agreement
100%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Unanimous
Sector Rank
Top 6%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
72
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 37.6% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 16 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 68.6 to 70.7.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
35.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.504
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$168.52
Resistance
$235.15
Bollinger %B
0.07
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$227.60
Below
EMA 21
$227.02
Below
EMA 50
$222.37
Below
EMA 200
$199.87
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
97
Growth
77
Profitability
59
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.5×
P/B Ratio
2.16×
PEG Ratio
0.27
Dividend Yield
1.70%
52W High
$236.07
52W Low
$166.54
Quality & Growth
ROE
1855.0%
ROA
390.9%
Gross Margin
3989.4%
Operating Margin
1430.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.23
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.2x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 18.5%; Return on assets of 3.9%; Net margin of 11.2%; Gross margin of 39.9%; Current ratio of 122.53 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.23; Free cash flow per share is positive (35.30); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 33.3%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-9.3% -> +1.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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