UBS · NYSE · STOCK
UBS Group (UBS) Stock Analysis
$47.67
52W $36.30 – $55.99
55/100
$146.29B
16.2
0.83
Is UBS Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates UBS Group AG (UBS) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 16, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.14 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.86 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 155.1% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 4.07) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 155.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 55.8% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 4.07 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.07) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 16, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 80%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− Debt-to-equity of 4.07 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 155.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.07) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2739.42)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.8 to 54.9.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 51->58 (+6).
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-16 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.103
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$36.45
Resistance
$49.35
Bollinger %B
0.36
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$47.82
Below
EMA 21
$48.81
Below
EMA 50
$50.23
Below
EMA 200
$47.63
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Growth
42
Profitability
56
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.2×
P/B Ratio
1.67×
PEG Ratio
0.33
Dividend Yield
2.16%
52W High
$55.99
52W Low
$36.30
Quality & Growth
ROE
861.0%
ROA
48.0%
Gross Margin
7945.8%
Operating Margin
1892.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.21
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.7x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 8.6%; Return on assets of 0.5%; Net margin of 15.1%; Gross margin of 79.5%; Current ratio of 0.39 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.21; Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.38); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 6.3%; EPS growth decelerating (+143.2% -> -3.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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