UMBF · NASDAQ · STOCK
UMB Financial (UMBF) Stock Analysis
$134.23
52W $103.38 – $153.32
65/100
$10.14B
11.1
0.78
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is UMBF Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates UMB Financial Corp. (UMBF) Buy with a composite score of 65/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.25 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.75 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Technical Analyst remains cautious — rsi at 22 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.8 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Revenue growing 72.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 40.8% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 22 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
65/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 35%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.8 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
71
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 72.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 22 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 61.8 to 64.8.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
22.3
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.836
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$107.34
Resistance
$135.97
Bollinger %B
0.06
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$136.82
Below
EMA 21
$139.79
Below
EMA 50
$141.08
Below
EMA 200
$131.18
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
73
Profitability
63
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.1×
P/B Ratio
1.26×
PEG Ratio
0.29
Dividend Yield
1.34%
52W High
$153.32
52W Low
$103.38
Quality & Growth
ROE
913.0%
ROA
96.1%
Gross Margin
5845.2%
Operating Margin
2211.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.44
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 11.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.3x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.1%; Return on assets of 1.0%; Net margin of 20.7%; Gross margin of 58.5%; Current ratio of 0.25 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.44; Free cash flow per share is positive (14.00); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.6%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+22.3% -> +6.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 26.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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