USAR · NASDAQ · STOCK
USA Rare Earth Inc
$18.91
52W $11.45 – $43.98
61/100
$2.51B
-8.0
2.48
Is USAR Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates USA Rare Earth Inc (USAR) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.00 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.00 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Positive signals support the current rating — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. The committee sees sufficient evidence to maintain the constructive view.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.01) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 2.68 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- ROE of only -9.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Bollinger bandwidth of 42.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 49%
of 95 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− ROE of only -9.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.01) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 42.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
68.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.742
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$13.87
Resistance
$19.63
Bollinger %B
0.91
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$17.57
Above
EMA 21
$17.23
Above
EMA 50
$18.68
Above
EMA 200
$19.12
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-8.0×
P/B Ratio
272.38×
PEG Ratio
0.04
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$43.98
52W Low
$11.45
Quality & Growth
ROE
-6040.2%
ROA
-4281.4%
Gross Margin
126.1%
Operating Margin
—
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of -8.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 272.4x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -60.4%; Return on assets of -42.8%; Net margin of -2159.3%; Gross margin of 1.3%; Current ratio of 32.79 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.18); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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