USAR · NASDAQ · STOCK
USA Rare Earth (USAR) Stock Analysis
$12.56
52W $11.45 – $43.98
50/100
$1.67B
-5.2
2.68
Is USAR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates USA Rare Earth Inc (USAR) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.96 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.04 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.01) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- ROE of only -7.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 17 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 92%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− ROE of only -7.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bearish
31
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.01) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 34.6% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.4 to 50.0.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 33% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral.
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
17.3
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.160
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$11.73
Resistance
$15.01
Bollinger %B
0.09
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$13.52
Below
EMA 21
$14.59
Below
EMA 50
$16.12
Below
EMA 200
$18.13
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
28
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-5.2×
P/B Ratio
0.97×
PEG Ratio
0.04
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$43.98
52W Low
$11.45
Quality & Growth
ROE
-6040.2%
ROA
-4281.4%
Gross Margin
-5406.5%
Operating Margin
—
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.01
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -5.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -60.4%; Return on assets of -42.8%; Net margin of -2159.3%; Gross margin of -54.1%; Current ratio of 32.79 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.01; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.25); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 17.6%; EPS growth decelerating (+74.8% -> -25.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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