VALE · NYSE · STOCK
Vale (VALE) Stock Analysis
$13.63
52W $10.77 – $17.94
50/100
$58.08B
27.2
0.53
Is VALE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Vale S.A. (VALE) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.14 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.86 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — eps declining -69.1% yoy despite any revenue growth. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 7.8% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 26.0 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- EPS declining -69.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 93%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Dividend yield of 7.8% pays you to wait
− P/E of 26.0 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
29
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -69.1% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 48.4 to 49.9.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 39->46 (+8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.005
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$13.56
Resistance
$15.98
Bollinger %B
0.34
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$13.71
Below
EMA 21
$13.96
Below
EMA 50
$14.34
Below
EMA 200
$14.48
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
84
Growth
8
Profitability
32
Financial Health
64
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
27.2×
P/B Ratio
1.52×
PEG Ratio
-0.46
Dividend Yield
8.27%
52W High
$17.94
52W Low
$10.77
Quality & Growth
ROE
735.2%
ROA
284.6%
Gross Margin
3424.0%
Operating Margin
2605.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.58
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 27.2 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.5x; PEG ratio of -0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 7.4%; Return on assets of 2.8%; Net margin of 5.2%; Gross margin of 34.2%; Current ratio of 1.19 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.58; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.88); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 32.9%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+148.9% -> -27.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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