VALE · NYSE · STOCK
Vale S.A.
$14.32
52W $9.67 – $17.94
56/100
$61.07B
28.7
0.51
Is VALE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Vale S.A. (VALE) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.83 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.17 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Growth Analyst remains cautious — eps declining -56.8% yoy despite any revenue growth. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 7.8% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- EPS declining -56.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 74%
of 95 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Dividend yield of 7.8% pays you to wait
Growth Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -56.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
36.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.016
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$14.00
Resistance
$17.71
Bollinger %B
0.21
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$14.70
Below
EMA 21
$14.73
Below
EMA 50
$15.02
Below
EMA 200
$14.56
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
81
Profitability
32
Financial Health
64
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
28.7×
P/B Ratio
1.61×
PEG Ratio
-0.49
Dividend Yield
7.36%
52W High
$17.94
52W Low
$9.67
Quality & Growth
ROE
735.2%
ROA
284.6%
Gross Margin
3424.0%
Operating Margin
2605.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.58
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 28.7 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.6x; PEG ratio of -0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 7.4%; Return on assets of 2.8%; Net margin of 5.2%; Gross margin of 34.2%; Current ratio of 1.19 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.58; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.88); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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