XOM · NYSE · STOCK
Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Analysis
$165.09
52W $108.35 – $176.41
67/100
$684.29B
21.2
0.16
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is XOM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Buy with a composite score of 67/100
, based on 6 analysts with 100% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +8.01 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -11.99 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 3069.37). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 2.5% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- Stochastic RSI (85.0) confirms overbought conditions.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 14.0% downside vs 6.8% upside.
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
67/100
Agreement
100%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Unanimous
Sector Rank
Top 6%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Dividend yield of 2.5% pays you to wait
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 69 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 67.0 to 67.0.
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
69.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.536
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$141.99
Resistance
$176.40
Bollinger %B
0.87
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$162.57
Above
EMA 21
$158.44
Above
EMA 50
$153.47
Above
EMA 200
$142.87
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
68
Growth
76
Profitability
45
Financial Health
64
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.2×
P/B Ratio
2.66×
PEG Ratio
2.08
Dividend Yield
2.50%
52W High
$176.41
52W Low
$108.35
Quality & Growth
ROE
1112.0%
ROA
642.4%
Gross Margin
2514.7%
Operating Margin
1070.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.16
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 21.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.7x; PEG ratio of 2.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 11.1%; Return on assets of 6.4%; Net margin of 9.1%; Gross margin of 25.1%; Current ratio of 1.13 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.16; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.32); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.9%; EPS growth accelerating (-32.2% -> +203.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 114.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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