XOM · NASDAQ · STOCK
Exxon Mobil Corporation
$152.93
52W $105.53 – $176.41
65/100
$633.85B
19.8
0.16
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is XOM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Buy with a composite score of 65/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated August 08, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +9.87 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -10.13 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. The main limiting factor is growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 2.5% pays you to wait — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 08, 2026
Overall Committee Score
65/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 22%
of 40 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Dividend yield of 2.5% pays you to wait
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 233 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 65.5 to 65.1.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-08 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
50.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.234
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$141.99
Resistance
$163.67
Bollinger %B
0.55
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$153.74
Below
EMA 21
$151.47
Above
EMA 50
$149.07
Above
EMA 200
$140.83
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
72
Growth
51
Profitability
45
Financial Health
64
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.8×
P/B Ratio
2.46×
PEG Ratio
2.02
Dividend Yield
2.67%
52W High
$176.41
52W Low
$105.53
Quality & Growth
ROE
1112.0%
ROA
642.4%
Gross Margin
2514.7%
Operating Margin
1070.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.16
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 19.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.5x; PEG ratio of 2.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 11.1%; Return on assets of 6.4%; Net margin of 9.1%; Gross margin of 25.1%; Current ratio of 1.13 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.16; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.32); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 14.3%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (-9.0% -> -32.2% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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