XOM · NYSE · STOCK
Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Analysis
$169.01
52W $110.39 – $176.41
65/100
$700.17B
21.7
0.17
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is XOM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Buy with a composite score of 65/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.35 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.65 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 2.5% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- RSI at 75 is in overbought territory — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
65/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 9%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Dividend yield of 2.5% pays you to wait
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 75 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 65.0 to 64.7.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
74.8
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.505
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$141.99
Resistance
$176.40
Bollinger %B
0.97
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$165.36
Above
EMA 21
$163.77
Above
EMA 50
$160.76
Above
EMA 200
$148.63
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
66
Growth
76
Profitability
45
Financial Health
64
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.7×
P/B Ratio
2.72×
PEG Ratio
2.13
Dividend Yield
2.44%
52W High
$176.41
52W Low
$110.39
Quality & Growth
ROE
1112.0%
ROA
642.4%
Gross Margin
2514.7%
Operating Margin
1070.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.16
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 21.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.7x; PEG ratio of 2.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 11.1%; Return on assets of 6.4%; Net margin of 9.1%; Gross margin of 25.1%; Current ratio of 1.13 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.16; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.32); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.9%; EPS growth accelerating (-32.2% -> +203.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 114.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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