VLO · NASDAQ · STOCK
Valero Energy
$298.30
52W $130.78 – $320.24
70/100
$85.89B
12.4
0.55
Is VLO Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Valero Energy (VLO) Buy with a composite score of 70/100
, based on 6 analysts with 100% agreement.
Last updated August 08, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +4.55 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -15.45 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is eps growing 896.0% yoy. The main limiting factor is 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.0 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 29.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 896.0% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 08, 2026
Overall Committee Score
70/100
Agreement
100%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Unanimous
Sector Rank
Top 5%
of 40 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 12.0 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 896.0% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
73
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.47 across 76 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 70.8 to 70.5.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-08 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
41.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-2.572
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Bollinger %B
0.23
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$303.85
Below
EMA 21
$298.73
Below
EMA 50
$281.84
Above
EMA 200
$231.44
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
90
Growth
95
Profitability
29
Financial Health
85
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.4×
P/B Ratio
3.51×
PEG Ratio
0.01
Dividend Yield
1.59%
52W High
$320.24
52W Low
$130.78
Quality & Growth
ROE
989.7%
ROA
404.9%
Gross Margin
1133.1%
Operating Margin
753.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.45
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.5x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.9%; Return on assets of 4.0%; Net margin of 5.4%; Gross margin of 11.3%; Current ratio of 1.64 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.45; Free cash flow per share is positive (34.32); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 22.7%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+10.5% -> +197.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 450.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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