VLO · NYSE · STOCK
Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Analysis
$433.74
52W $155.29 – $449.77
61/100
$124.89B
18.0
0.59
Is VLO Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Valero Energy (VLO) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.22 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.78 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 896.0% yoy. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 29.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.3% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 896.0% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- RSI at 71 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 80 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 19.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 37%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 29.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 896.0% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 71 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 19.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.8 to 60.8.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
70.9
Overbought
MACD Histogram
2.690
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.91
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$418.68
Above
EMA 21
$402.01
Above
EMA 50
$371.14
Above
EMA 200
$284.16
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
78
Growth
95
Profitability
29
Financial Health
85
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
18.0×
P/B Ratio
5.10×
PEG Ratio
0.02
Dividend Yield
1.09%
52W High
$449.77
52W Low
$155.29
Quality & Growth
ROE
989.7%
ROA
404.9%
Gross Margin
1133.1%
Operating Margin
753.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.45
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 18.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.1x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.9%; Return on assets of 4.0%; Net margin of 5.4%; Gross margin of 11.3%; Current ratio of 1.64 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.45; Free cash flow per share is positive (34.42); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 22.7%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+10.5% -> +197.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 450.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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