VLO · NYSE · STOCK
Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Analysis
$348.81
52W $144.30 – $352.70
63/100
$100.45B
14.5
0.55
Is VLO Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Valero Energy (VLO) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +12.30 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -7.70 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 896.0% yoy. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 24.0% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.1 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 29.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 896.0% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- RSI at 72 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 78 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 24.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 20%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.1 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 896.0% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 72 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 24.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 64 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.7 to 62.7.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
72.1
Overbought
MACD Histogram
1.608
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.85
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$339.10
Above
EMA 21
$324.70
Above
EMA 50
$300.92
Above
EMA 200
$241.67
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
87
Growth
95
Profitability
29
Financial Health
85
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.5×
P/B Ratio
4.10×
PEG Ratio
0.02
Dividend Yield
1.36%
52W High
$352.70
52W Low
$144.30
Quality & Growth
ROE
989.7%
ROA
404.9%
Gross Margin
1133.1%
Operating Margin
753.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.45
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.1x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.9%; Return on assets of 4.0%; Net margin of 5.4%; Gross margin of 11.3%; Current ratio of 1.64 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.45; Free cash flow per share is positive (34.42); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 22.7%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+10.5% -> +197.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 450.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full VLO Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →