MPC · NYSE · STOCK
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Analysis
$360.60
52W $161.93 – $367.60
62/100
$105.31B
12.4
0.51
Is MPC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 5 analysts with 80% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.45 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.55 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 30.8% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- RSI at 72 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 80 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 30.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
80%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 25%
of 93 Energy peers
Growth Analyst
bullish
82
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 72 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 30.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 48 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.5 to 61.5.
- Committee agreement fell modestly from 83% to 80%.
- Bullish support removed: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 79->82 (+4).
- Value Analyst abstained (was bullish at 61).
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
71.8
Overbought
MACD Histogram
2.357
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.80
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$351.69
Above
EMA 21
$333.96
Above
EMA 50
$306.77
Above
EMA 200
$246.91
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
79
Growth
94
Profitability
44
Financial Health
36
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.4×
P/B Ratio
5.50×
PEG Ratio
0.04
Dividend Yield
1.11%
52W High
$367.60
52W Low
$161.93
Quality & Growth
ROE
2337.4%
ROA
473.0%
Gross Margin
1162.1%
Operating Margin
795.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.80
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.5x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 23.4%; Return on assets of 4.7%; Net margin of 5.6%; Gross margin of 11.6%; Current ratio of 1.25 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.80; Free cash flow per share is positive (44.33); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 27.9%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-59.5% -> +974.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 347.7%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full MPC Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →