MPC · NYSE · STOCK
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Analysis
$358.21
52W $160.87 – $360.10
64/100
$103.76B
12.2
0.51
Is MPC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated August 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.32 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.68 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 11.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 48.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 330.2% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 1.90 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- RSI at 79 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 79 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 22.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 32%
of 90 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 11.7 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 1.90 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 330.2% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 79 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 59 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 63.3 to 63.7.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
79.4
Overbought
MACD Histogram
3.655
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Bollinger %B
1.03
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$333.21
Above
EMA 21
$317.56
Above
EMA 50
$294.79
Above
EMA 200
$241.06
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
80
Growth
94
Profitability
44
Financial Health
36
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.2×
P/B Ratio
5.42×
PEG Ratio
0.04
Dividend Yield
1.10%
52W High
$360.10
52W Low
$160.87
Quality & Growth
ROE
2337.4%
ROA
473.0%
Gross Margin
1162.1%
Operating Margin
795.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.80
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.4x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 23.4%; Return on assets of 4.7%; Net margin of 5.6%; Gross margin of 11.6%; Current ratio of 1.25 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.80; Free cash flow per share is positive (44.33); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 27.9%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-59.5% -> +974.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 347.7%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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