MPC · NYSE · STOCK
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Analysis
$454.96
52W $161.93 – $470.00
59/100
$132.84B
15.7
0.54
Is MPC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.74 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.26 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 330.2% yoy. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 48.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 330.2% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 1.90 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- RSI at 76 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 80 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 22.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 49%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 48.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Debt-to-equity of 1.90 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 330.2% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 76 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.5 to 59.3.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 83% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 61->56 (-5).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
75.9
Overbought
MACD Histogram
4.076
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.95
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$434.15
Above
EMA 21
$415.10
Above
EMA 50
$382.16
Above
EMA 200
$291.60
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
71
Growth
94
Profitability
44
Financial Health
36
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.7×
P/B Ratio
6.94×
PEG Ratio
0.05
Dividend Yield
0.88%
52W High
$470.00
52W Low
$161.93
Quality & Growth
ROE
2337.4%
ROA
473.0%
Gross Margin
1162.1%
Operating Margin
795.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.80
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 15.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.9x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 23.4%; Return on assets of 4.7%; Net margin of 5.6%; Gross margin of 11.6%; Current ratio of 1.25 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.80; Free cash flow per share is positive (44.33); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 27.7%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-59.5% -> +974.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 347.7%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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