ACGL · NASDAQ · STOCK
Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Stock Analysis
$95.54
52W $82.45 – $107.09
68/100
$33.39B
7.4
0.26
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ACGL Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Arch Capital Group (ACGL) Buy with a composite score of 68/100
, based on 6 analysts with 100% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +7.33 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -12.67 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.11) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 7.0 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 19.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 31.9% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -0.8% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
68/100
Agreement
100%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Unanimous
Sector Rank
Top 14%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
76
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 7.0 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 31.9% YoY
− Revenue declining -0.8% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.11) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 67.7 to 67.7.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
54.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.231
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$94.17
Resistance
$96.33
Bollinger %B
0.54
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$94.96
Above
EMA 21
$95.46
Above
EMA 50
$96.59
Below
EMA 200
$96.02
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
67
Profitability
80
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
7.4×
P/B Ratio
1.36×
PEG Ratio
0.24
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$107.09
52W Low
$82.45
Quality & Growth
ROE
1817.3%
ROA
656.0%
Gross Margin
4618.9%
Operating Margin
2737.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 7.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.4x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 18.2%; Return on assets of 6.6%; Net margin of 24.4%; Gross margin of 46.2%; Current ratio of 0.67 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.18; Free cash flow per share is positive (17.64); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.1%; EPS growth accelerating (-16.1% -> +2.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -0.8%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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