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ADSK · NASDAQ · STOCK

Autodesk (ADSK) Stock Analysis

Technology Updated August 19, 2026
$251.36
52W $185.50 – $329.09
63/100
$52.11B
35.8
1.30
AI Committee Verdict
Buy
63/100
Conviction: Contested · 40% agreement · 5 analysts
+3.2%
-0.7%
4.70:1
Contested

Is ADSK Bullish or Bearish?

Bullish. Innellis AI committee rates Autodesk (ADSK) Buy with a composite score of 63/100 , based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement. Last updated August 19, 2026.

What Would Change This View

Upgrade to Strong Buy
Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +12.40 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
Downgrade to Watch
Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -7.60 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.

Executive Summary

The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 28.4% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.

Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case
  • 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
  • MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
  • VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
  • Bollinger bandwidth of 28.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)

AI Investment Committee

Committee Consensus As of August 19, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 36%
of 287 Technology peers
Growth Analyst bullish
80 / 100 · Low confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst neutral
58 / 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst bearish
35 / 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 28.4% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst bullish
80 / 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst neutral
60 / 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager neutral
45 / 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2974.99)
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Investment Thesis Evolution

Committee score moved marginally from 59.7 to 62.6.

Analyst-level changes:
  • Growth Analyst: score 77->80 (+3).
  • Value Analyst abstained (was neutral at 48).

Comparing 2026-08-18 to 2026-08-19 (1 day apart).

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)
54.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.078
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$245.25
Resistance
$254.94
Bollinger %B
0.65
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$246.78 Above
EMA 21
$238.56 Above
EMA 50
$229.65 Above
EMA 200
$245.39 Above

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation
39
Growth
73
Profitability
97
Financial Health
43
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio 35.8×
P/B Ratio 16.33×
PEG Ratio 0.77
Dividend Yield 0.00%
52W High $329.09
52W Low $185.50
Quality & Growth
ROE 3691.3%
ROA 901.6%
Gross Margin 9114.2%
Operating Margin 2660.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
Debt / Equity 0.85
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 35.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 16.3x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 36.9%; Return on assets of 9.0%; Net margin of 19.5%; Gross margin of 91.1%; Current ratio of 0.83 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.85; Free cash flow per share is positive (12.93); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.1%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth roughly steady (+6.7% -> +4.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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