AER · NYSE · STOCK
AerCap Holdings N.V.
$149.33
52W $110.67 – $158.81
60/100
$23.54B
7.2
0.93
Is AER Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Watch with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +0.08 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -19.92 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.38) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 6.9 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 18.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 26.3% YoY — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 2.38 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.38) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 48%
of 223 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 6.9 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 2.38 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 26.3% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.38) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
40.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.483
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$132.50
Resistance
$152.44
Bollinger %B
0.35
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$151.66
Below
EMA 21
$150.88
Below
EMA 50
$148.11
Above
EMA 200
$139.70
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Profitability
88
Financial Health
4
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
7.2×
P/B Ratio
1.27×
PEG Ratio
0.29
Dividend Yield
0.90%
52W High
$158.81
52W Low
$110.67
Quality & Growth
ROE
2046.9%
ROA
523.3%
Gross Margin
5986.0%
Operating Margin
5280.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.32
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 7.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.3x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 20.5%; Return on assets of 5.2%; Net margin of 40.9%; Gross margin of 59.9%; Current ratio of 0.68 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.32; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.97); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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