AER · NYSE · STOCK
AerCap Holdings (AER) Stock Analysis
$144.81
52W $118.96 – $158.81
58/100
$22.82B
7.0
0.98
Is AER Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Watch with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.26 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.74 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is p/e of 6.5 is inexpensive for the broad market. The main limiting factor is high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.38) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 6.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 18.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 26.3% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 2.38 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.38) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 44%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 6.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 2.38 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 26.3% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.38) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.7 to 57.7.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
52.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.101
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$132.50
Resistance
$149.09
Bollinger %B
0.61
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$144.10
Above
EMA 21
$144.33
Above
EMA 50
$145.24
Below
EMA 200
$141.54
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
69
Profitability
88
Financial Health
4
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
7.0×
P/B Ratio
1.23×
PEG Ratio
0.28
Dividend Yield
1.02%
52W High
$158.81
52W Low
$118.96
Quality & Growth
ROE
2046.9%
ROA
523.3%
Gross Margin
5986.0%
Operating Margin
5280.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.32
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 7.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.2x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 20.5%; Return on assets of 5.2%; Net margin of 40.9%; Gross margin of 59.9%; Current ratio of 0.68 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.32; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.97); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 24.1%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+42.2% -> -4.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full AER Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →