ZTO · NYSE · STOCK
ZTO Express (Cayman) (ZTO) Stock Analysis
$20.16
52W $18.11 – $26.20
68/100
$15.96B
10.2
-0.23
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ZTO Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Buy with a composite score of 68/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +7.50 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -12.50 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — quarter-over-quarter growth rate is accelerating, not just positive. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 9.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 16.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 2 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
68/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 1%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 9.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
74
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 2 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 65.6 to 67.5.
- Conviction changed from moderate to high.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 67% to 83%.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->74 (+16); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: score 80->75 (-5).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
62.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.137
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$18.18
Resistance
$20.83
Bollinger %B
0.62
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$19.81
Above
EMA 21
$20.05
Above
EMA 50
$20.95
Below
EMA 200
$22.02
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
81
Profitability
68
Financial Health
86
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.2×
P/B Ratio
1.61×
PEG Ratio
0.50
Dividend Yield
3.43%
52W High
$26.20
52W Low
$18.11
Quality & Growth
ROE
1329.8%
ROA
969.8%
Gross Margin
2510.1%
Operating Margin
2021.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.35
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.6x; PEG ratio of 0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.3%; Return on assets of 9.7%; Net margin of 19.0%; Gross margin of 25.1%; Current ratio of 1.67 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.35; Free cash flow per share is positive (6.55); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 5.0%; EPS growth accelerating (-11.5% -> +29.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 59.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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