ZTO · NYSE · STOCK
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.
$23.16
52W $17.74 – $26.20
69/100
$18.34B
13.8
-0.22
Is ZTO Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Buy with a composite score of 69/100
, based on 6 analysts with 100% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +6.32 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -13.68 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. The main limiting factor is 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.0 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.9% pays you to wait — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
- No news coverage in the last 14 days -- limited independent confirmation either way — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
69/100
Agreement
100%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Unanimous
Sector Rank
Top 9%
of 223 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.0 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
− No news coverage in the last 14 days -- limited independent confirmation either way
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
36.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.113
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$22.39
Resistance
$25.91
Bollinger %B
-0.13
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$23.77
Below
EMA 21
$23.77
Below
EMA 50
$23.60
Below
EMA 200
$22.74
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
97
Profitability
66
Financial Health
85
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.8×
P/B Ratio
2.00×
PEG Ratio
-11.52
Dividend Yield
2.92%
52W High
$26.20
52W Low
$17.74
Quality & Growth
ROE
1329.8%
ROA
969.8%
Gross Margin
2489.2%
Operating Margin
1991.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.35
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 13.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.0x; PEG ratio of -11.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.3%; Return on assets of 9.7%; Net margin of 17.9%; Gross margin of 24.9%; Current ratio of 1.64 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.35; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.48); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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