AGX · NYSE · STOCK
Argan (AGX) Stock Analysis
$393.32
52W $257.62 – $805.75
62/100
$5.50B
30.5
0.56
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is AGX Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Argan, Inc. (AGX) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +12.93 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -7.07 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 29.0% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 38.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.6% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 29.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 52.2% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- P/E of 31.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 10.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 20%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 38.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 31.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
84
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 29.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 17 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.7 to 62.1.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
50.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
8.668
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$279.35
Resistance
$395.71
Bollinger %B
0.65
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$393.02
Above
EMA 21
$398.22
Below
EMA 50
$447.86
Below
EMA 200
$485.19
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
46
Growth
95
Profitability
69
Financial Health
79
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
30.5×
P/B Ratio
10.87×
PEG Ratio
0.62
Dividend Yield
0.51%
52W High
$805.75
52W Low
$257.62
Quality & Growth
ROE
2980.4%
ROA
1161.3%
Gross Margin
2086.3%
Operating Margin
1536.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 30.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 10.9x; PEG ratio of 0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 29.8%; Return on assets of 11.6%; Net margin of 15.1%; Gross margin of 20.9%; Current ratio of 1.50 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow per share is positive (38.90); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 40.9%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-6.6% -> +16.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 50.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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