APA · NASDAQ · STOCK
APA (APA) Stock Analysis
$41.52
52W $21.57 – $45.66
55/100
$15.19B
9.1
0.35
Is APA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates APA Corporation (APA) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.16 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.84 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 32.3% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 72 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 77 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 32.3% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 73%
of 93 Energy peers
Growth Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 72 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 32.3% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 58.1 to 54.8.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 60%.
- Bullish support removed: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 54->58 (+4).
- Value Analyst abstained (was bullish at 78).
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
66.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.412
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$41.38
Resistance
$43.55
Bollinger %B
0.79
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$42.09
Below
EMA 21
$39.95
Above
EMA 50
$37.89
Above
EMA 200
$33.36
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
97
Growth
76
Profitability
79
Financial Health
55
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.1×
P/B Ratio
2.16×
PEG Ratio
0.15
Dividend Yield
2.33%
52W High
$45.66
52W Low
$21.57
Quality & Growth
ROE
2353.5%
ROA
754.8%
Gross Margin
3876.8%
Operating Margin
1184.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.55
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 9.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.2x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 23.5%; Return on assets of 7.5%; Net margin of 19.0%; Gross margin of 38.8%; Current ratio of 0.95 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.55; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.97); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.2%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+51.6% -> +37.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 117.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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