APA · NASDAQ · STOCK
APA (APA) Stock Analysis
$45.87
52W $21.63 – $47.44
60/100
$16.22B
9.7
0.37
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is APA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates APA Corporation (APA) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.91 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.09 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 9.6 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 9.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 26.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.7% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 58.7% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -12.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Current ratio of 0.82 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 45%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 9.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 58.7% YoY
− Revenue declining -12.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.82 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.1 to 60.1.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
69.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.120
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$41.38
Resistance
$46.14
Bollinger %B
0.83
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$44.30
Above
EMA 21
$43.79
Above
EMA 50
$42.26
Above
EMA 200
$36.29
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
96
Growth
76
Profitability
79
Financial Health
55
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
9.7×
P/B Ratio
2.31×
PEG Ratio
0.17
Dividend Yield
2.18%
52W High
$47.44
52W Low
$21.63
Quality & Growth
ROE
2353.5%
ROA
754.8%
Gross Margin
3876.8%
Operating Margin
1184.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.55
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 9.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.3x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 23.5%; Return on assets of 7.5%; Net margin of 19.0%; Gross margin of 38.8%; Current ratio of 0.95 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.55; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.97); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.2%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+51.6% -> +37.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 117.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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