APP · NASDAQ · STOCK
AppLovin (APP) Stock Analysis
$276.91
52W $266.84 – $738.01
53/100
$93.07B
21.2
2.56
Is APP Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AppLovin (APP) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.65 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.35 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 60.6% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 193.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 60.6% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 84.7% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 106.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.70 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.70) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 84%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 193.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 106.7x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
71
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 60.6% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.70) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.6 to 53.4.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 55->60 (+4).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
32.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.522
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$201.34
Resistance
$417.30
Bollinger %B
0.19
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$284.98
Below
EMA 21
$297.97
Below
EMA 50
$328.89
Below
EMA 200
$415.99
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
58
Growth
79
Profitability
100
Financial Health
85
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.2×
P/B Ratio
29.48×
PEG Ratio
0.26
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$738.01
52W Low
$266.84
Quality & Growth
ROE
15617.2%
ROA
4592.2%
Gross Margin
8846.4%
Operating Margin
7744.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.11
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 21.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 29.5x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 156.2%; Return on assets of 45.9%; Net margin of 64.6%; Gross margin of 88.5%; Current ratio of 4.30 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.11; Free cash flow per share is positive (13.37); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.1%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+9.9% -> +5.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 57.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full APP Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →